"I'VE HEARD PEOPLE SAY THAT TOO MUCH OF ANYTHING IS NOT GOOD FOR YOU...BUT I CAN'T GET ENOUGH OF YOUR LOVE, BABE." BARRY WHITE And that's exactly the song that Mortgage Bonds appear to be singing to the 200-day Moving Average recently. In fact, they've touched this level on twelve of the past sixteen trading sessions - and just can't seem to get enough. But why do Bonds continue to linger around this level, and how much will be enough?
The 200-day Moving Average has historically acted as a very strong "floor of support" or "ceiling of resistance" for Bonds, meaning that Bonds generally decidedly trade above or below this line. And the current tap-dance that Bonds are doing all over this level shows that there is a bit of uncertainty in the markets - and it will take a series of economic reports that are either very strong or very weak to propel Bonds to move away from the 200-day Moving Average. Remember that strong economic news tends to move Bond prices lower, causing home loan rates to worsen - and weak economic news tends to move Bond prices higher, causing home loan rates to improve.
And last week's news just didn't provide enough impetus for Bonds to make a decisive move one way or the other. Retail Sales were much better than expected yet Consumer Sentiment was lower than expected, while reads on Producer Price Inflation were a bit mixed. All in all, home loan rates stayed generally flat for most of the week.
Here is this weeks forecast.